Author: Chris Siems

In the past 24 hours, Maria became a hurricane, and strengthened to Category 4. (See Saffir-Simpson scale.) It’s currently next to Dominica, and tracking north west. Maria is predicted to follow a similar path as Hurricane Irma – passing over Puerto Rico – and turning north, staying in the Atlantic.

Also in the Atlantic, Hurricane Jose continues to weaken as it tracks north; still affecting tides along the east coast of the U.S. and Bermuda.

Here are the Forecast/Advisories from the National Weather Service:

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.7W AT 18/2100Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.

[UPDATE 09-20-2017] Hurricane Jose was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and Hurricane Maria strengthened to Category 5 before it slammed into Puerto Rico.

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.

[UPDATE 09-22-2017] Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico yesterday. It weakened to Category 2 as it past over the island, but then strengthened again to Category 3 last night. It’s currently about 30 miles east of Turks and Caicos Islands, and is expected to move north along the east coast of the U.S.

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.6W AT 22/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

[UPDATE 09-28-2017] Almost one week after my last report on Hurricane Maria, the storm weakened to Tropical Storm strength, then restrengthened to a Hurricane, and now is weakened to Tropical Storm once again. Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee (it was a storm before Maria), has strengthened to a Category 2 storm. Lee is expected to track northeast and not affect the U.S..

MARIA:
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.0W AT 28/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.

LEE:
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.2W AT 28/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.

The tenacious Hurricane Jose is back after a break from the triumvirate of tumultuous storms, Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Katia. Jose has been spinning in circles in the western Atlantic since I last reported on him September 12. On September 14, he weakened to Tropical Storm Jose. On September 15, he strengthened to a hurricane once again. Jose is not forecast to severally affect the U.S.

Here is the discussion from the National Weather Service:

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

While people from Corpus Christi to Houston are still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, two more storms showed up in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Irma formed in the mid-Atlantic and strengthened to Category 5 by September 5, 2017; max winds 160 KT (185 mph). Now, it’s on the doorstep of the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Jose formed yesterday in the mid-Atlantic.

Here are the advisories from the National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 59.8W AT 05/2100Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.

[UPDATE 09-06-2017] Tropical Storm Katia formed overnight in the Gulf of Mexico about 105 miles east of Tampico, Mexico. It is not expected to impact the U.S.

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.6W AT 06/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.

[UPDATE 09-07-2017] Tropical Storm Jose strengthened to Hurricane Jose overnight, and Tropical Storm Katia strengthened to Hurricane Katia overnight. Hurricane Jose is following a similar path to Hurricane Irma, but it’s expected to turn north sooner than Irma and not affect Florida. Florida is preparing for a strong Hurricane Irma; possibly Category 4. Hurricane Katia is still not expected to impact the U.S.

IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 69.7W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.

JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 50.6W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

KATIA
HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

[UPDATE 09-08-2017] In the past 12 hours, Hurricane Irma weakened to Category 4, Hurricane Jose strengthened to Category 4, and Hurricane Katia strengthened to Category 2. Hurricane Irma is located between Cuba and the Bahamas, and is expected to make landfall in south Florida on Sunday morning. Hurricane Jose is on a path to skim the northern Leeward Islands and continue a northerly course towards Bermuda. Hurricane Katia is expected to make landfall north of Veracruz, Mexico, late Friday night.

IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 75.3W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.

JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 57.1W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.

KATIA
HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

[UPDATE 09-09-2017] Last night Hurricane Katia made landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico and quickly fell apart. Hurricane Irma, weakened to a Category 3 (but expected to restrengthen), slowly continued its northwest track toward south Florida. Irma is located just off of the north coast of Cuba.  Hurricane Jose, still a Category 4, slowly continued its northwest track. Jose is located about 50 miles northeast of Barbuda Island.

IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 79.8W AT 09/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.3W AT 09/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.

[UPDATE 09-10-2017] Overnight Hurricane Irma, Category 4, turned north and made first landfall on the lower Florida Keys. It is continuing on a northerly course. Hurricane Jose, still a Category 4, slowly continued its northwest track. It is located 180 miles north of Puerto Rico.

IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 81.5W AT 10/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.

JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.5W AT 10/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.

[UPDATE 09-11-2017] The past 24 hours Hurricane Irma moved 400 miles north and was down graded to a Tropical Storm. TS Irma is located 30 miles west of Gainesville, Florida. Hurricane Jose was down graded to Category 2. Jose is located about 550 miles east of Nassau, Bahamas.

JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 68.6W AT 11/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

[UPDATE 09-12-2017] In the past 24 hours Hurricane Irma moved north to the Alabama-Georgia line and weakened to a post-cyclone. Hurricane Jose weakened to Category 1. It’s located 400 miles southwest from Bermuda.

JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 69.0W AT 12/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

It has been a quiet 8 years since Hurricane Ike came to Texas, but now we’re looking at a hurricane that could dump FEET of rain on southeast Texas. Meet Hurricane Harvey, a Category 1 storm with winds of 80 mph (as of Thursday afternoon). He’s expected to get stronger – possibly Cat 3 – and make landfall near Corpus Christi sometime Friday evening. I’ll update as I can.

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Special Advisory Number 17 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 118 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017:

Harvey has intensified into a hurricane early this afternoon. Harvey is expected to continue to strengthen possibly becoming a major hurricane on Friday before landfall. At this point, Harvey could become a high end category 3 hurricane. The primary impact from Harvey remains heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding for southeast Texas. There is also the threat for tropical storm to hurricane force winds and storm surge along the coast. The most likely arrival time for tropical storm force winds to reach the upper Texas coast is during the day on Friday. Since the wind fields have expanded in Harvey, higher storm surge can be expected up the Texas coast. Source: www.weather.gov

[UPDATE Friday 08-25-2017]

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 20A National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 725 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017:

Harvey has continued to strengthen this morning to a high-end category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Harvey is forecast to continue strengthening and will most likely become a major hurricane today before it makes landfall along the Middle Texas Coast later tonight. The primary impact from Harvey over Southeast Texas remains prolonged significant heavy rainfall that will induce extreme widespread flooding through at least the beginning of next week. Tropical storm force winds, with occasional hurricane force wind gusts, and storm surge will occur along the coast as early as this afternoon and persist through Tuesday. Coastal flooding due to storm surge and wave run up will remain an issue throughout the weekend and into the beginning of next week as strong onshore winds will continue to pile water up along the coastline. Again, the primary emphasis and greatest threat to life and property will be the extreme rainfall amounts that will likely lead to a potentially catastrophic and prolonged flash flooding event. Source: www.weather.gov

[UPDATE Saturday 08-26-2017]

Harvey came ashore late last night as a Cat 4 – wind speeds of 130 mph – near Port Aransas, Texas. We’re doing well – only about 2.5 inches of rain so far.

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 24A National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 713 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017:

Hurricane Harvey has weakened to a Category 1 and is producing torrential rainfall and isolated tornadoes across Southeast Texas as it slowly drifts to the NNW. The primary impact from Harvey over Southeast Texas remains prolonged significant heavy rainfall that will induce extreme widespread flooding through at least the beginning of next week. Flash flooding has already begun across portions of Southeast Texas. Tropical storm force winds are possible through around noon Saturday for the southwestern portions of Southeast Texas. With the strongest winds tonight, storm surge will be slow to recede through Sunday, particularly west of Sargent. Elevated tide levels will continue through Tuesday. Tornadoes will continue to form this morning, especially across the coastal counties and first inland tier. Again, the primary emphasis and greatest threat to life and property will be the extreme rainfall amounts that will likely lead to a potentially catastrophic and prolonged flash flooding event over the coming 3 to 5 days. Source: www.weather.gov

[UPDATE Sunday 08-27-2017]

Flooding rain is predicted for at least the next 4 days.

Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 28 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 432 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017:

A catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding event is unfolding across Southeast Texas this morning. Five Flash Flood Emergencies have already been issued for the Houston Metro area overnight, some of which remain in effect this morning. Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to drop devastating amounts of ADDITIONAL rainfall across the area over the next several days. Tornadoes have also been occurring across Southeast Texas over the last day or so and will continue through the next several days. Coastal flooding may be an ongoing issue along the coast where winds will continue to push water onshore, particularly south of Sargent. Elevated tides will cause the recession of coastal flood waters to be slow, likely lasting into the first part of the week. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still ongoing, primarily in the southwestern portions of the area towards Matagorda Bay. Though there are currently multiple hazards present across the area, the greatest threat to life and property remains the ongoing extreme rainfall and subsequent prolonged and catastrophic flash flooding. Source: www.weather.gov

[UPDATE Monday 08-28-2017]

It’s quiet this morning. Rain is in the area and some is coming to BCS, but for the most part we’re calm. Now we wait and see how bad the flooding is/will be – there’s a Flash Flood Watch until Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 32 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 428 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

The life-threatening flooding event around the Houston metro continues through tonight, as water rescues are still occurring in the area. Though comparatively less rainfall has fallen across the area tonight than last night, this speaks more to the unfathomable amount of rainfall last night. Per observations, a widespread 3 to 7 inches of rain has still fallen in the past six hours across much of the area, with more to the east of the Houston metro around I-10. Given the completely saturated ground, this amount of rainfall and future expected heavy rainfall will keep the flooding threat at the forefront of this storm. Tornadoes have also been occurring, and while their rate has slowed overnight, this threat will continue as well. Coastal flooding may be an ongoing issue along the coast where winds will continue to push water onshore, particularly south of Sargent. Elevated tides will cause the recession of coastal flood waters to be slow, likely lasting into the first part of the week. As Harvey drifts back towards the Gulf, the potential for tropical storm force winds will also extend up the coastline. Ultimately, of the multiple hazards present with this storm, the greatest threat to life and property remains the ongoing extreme rainfall and its consequent prolonged and catastrophic flash flooding event. Source: www.weather.gov

[UPDATE Tuesday 08-29-2017]

Harvey continues as a tropical storm, moving slowly back to the Gulf, throwing tornadoes and flooding rains to New Orleans and beyond.

Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 36 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 446 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017:

The catastrophic and life-threatening flooding event around the Houston metro continues this morning with water rescues and evacuations still ongoing across the area. A light to moderate rain continues to fall this morning, with the heavier rates now confined to Chambers County. Given the completely saturated ground, any amount current of rainfall and future expected rainfall will exacerbate conditions and hinder the recession of flood waters. Elevated tides will cause the recession of coastal flood waters to be slow, likely lasting into midweek. Historic flooding is likely on many area rivers and bayous, and many evacuations are already underway. The effect of this historic river and bayou flooding will remain ongoing long after the rains end. As Harvey drifts just off the Upper Texas Coast, the potential for tropical storm force winds will also extend up the coastline. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out today, however the threat for tornadoes has decreased substantially since yesterday. Ultimately, of the multiple hazards present with this storm, the greatest threat to life and property remains the ongoing prolonged and catastrophic flooding event. Source: www.weather.gov

[UPDATE Wednesday 08-30-2017]

Texas is done with Tropical Storm Harvey. Today it’s slowly moving toward Louisiana. The forecast still has it going north in the next few days – the forecasts so far have been wrong.

Greater Houston is devastated. More than 5,000 square miles are under water; one spot east of Houston received 51 inches of rain in 5 days; over 40,000 homes have been damaged.

Many buildings in Corpus Christi, Port Aransas, Victoria, and Rockport – were Hurricane Harvey made landfall – were damaged.