The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) [via Colorado Statue University (CSU) meterologist Philip Klotzbach] predicted that El Nino will peak to the middle of summer/hurricane season. Apparently this will negatively impact this year’s hurricane season. In their annual tweet CSU predicted a slightly below-normal hurricane season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
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This year CSU again predicted an above-average season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
Not to go too far off on a tangent, but in 2020 CSU predicted 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes. Four months later they revised these numbers to be 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes! We ended 2020 with 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes!
In 2021 they predicted 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes. We ended 2021 with 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
From the National Hurricane Center, the 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names are: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter.
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This year CSU again predicted an above-average season with 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. If last year was any indication we should expect a wild season that starts early and ends late.
From the National Hurricane Center, the 2021 Atlantic tropical cyclone names are: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda.
This year, instead of the Greek alphabet, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a list of normal names to use as the supplemental list of tropical cyclone names: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, and Will.
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The predictions for the 2020 hurricane season were for an above-average hurricane season. Philip Klotzbach predicted 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes this year; updated to 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Hurricane season usually runs from June 1 through November 30 – although given the predictions it may extend beyond those boundaries.
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According to predictions, this year’s forecast calls for a slightly below average season with at least 13 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The reason for the weaker season is the continuation of a weak El Niño.
This year’s Atlantic tropical cyclone names are: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.
On Monday, May 20, 2019, we had the first named storm of 2019. Andrea was born on Monday (5/20/2019 at 2230 UTC) and died on Tuesday (5/21/2019 at 2100 UTC).
Andrea Is 1st Named Storm Of Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Source: NPR.
One year and four days after I wrote about the first storm of 2018, we have the second storm for 2019. Tropical Storm Barry formed this morning (7/11/2019 at 1500 UTC) and is expected to strengthen to category 1 (see Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricane before it makes landfall early Saturday along mid-Louisiana Gulf Coast.
UPDATE 7/12/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Barry is located about 70 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana, with winds of 65 miles per hour moving west-northwest at 6 miles per hour.
UPDATE 7/13/ at 1800 UTC: Hurricane Barry made landfall near Intracoastal City, LA, as category 1 hurricane Saturday afternoon and quickly weakened to a tropical storm.
Wind speed is not what is troubling much of the region. Experts predict possible rains of up to 25 inches in parts of southern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, and the slow-moving storm could create big flooding risks in inland areas like greater Baton Rouge. Officials issued mandatory evacuation orders in communities along the coast, including parts of Plaquemines, Jefferson and Lafourche Parishes.
Source: NYTimes
UPDATE 7/14/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Depression Barry is located about 20 miles north-northeast of Shreveport, Louisiana, with winds of 35 miles per hour moving north at 9 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Chantal formed on Tuesday, August 20, about 485 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. It is moving eastward, and it is not expected to strengthen or make landfall.
Tropical Storm Dorian formed on Saturday, August 24, about 725 miles southeast of Barbados, and moving northwest at 12 miles per hour. It is expected to strengthen to hurricane strength over the next few days.
UPDATE 8/26/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Dorian is about 60 southeast of Barbados with max winds of 60 miles per hour. It is moving west-northwest at 14 miles per hour. A Tropical Storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico.
UPDATE 8/27/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Dorian continues moving west-northwest at 13 miles per hour. Tropical storm warnings are issued for Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Hurricane watches are issued for Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic; P.R. Governor Vazquez declares a state of emergency.
UPDATE 8/28/2019 at 2100 UTC: Dorian strengthened into a hurricane over the British and US Virgin Islands – east of Puerto Rico – Wednesday afternoon with maximum winds of 75 miles per hour (Category 1) . Hurricane Dorian is expected to strengthen as it approaches Florida’s southeast coast this Labor Day weekend. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declares a state of emergency.
UPDATE 8/29/2019 at 1500 UTC: Hurricane Dorian is 220 north-northwest of Puerto Rico, 370 miles east of Bahamas, and is expected to strengthen to major hurricane over the next few days as it moves toward Florida’s east coast. Dorian’s maximum winds are 85 miles per hour, and it’s moving northwest at 13 miles per hour. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp declares a state of emergency.
Hurricane Dorian is predicted to hit Florida and the northern Bahamas this weekend as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm, bringing intense rains and sustained winds of 130 mph, the National Hurricane Center says.
Source: NPR
UPDATE 8/30/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Dorian, located about 595 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL., has maximum winds of 115 miles per hour (Category 3) and moving 300 degrees at 9 miles per hour. Hurricane Warnings were issued for northwestern Bahamas. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper declares a state of emergency.
UPDATE 8/31/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Dorian has strengthened to 150 miles per hour (Category 4), and turn slightly northward. It is expected to hit northern Bahamas on Sunday, then curve northwards skimming the east coast from Florida to Virginia. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency.
UPDATE 9/1/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Dorian has strengthened to 185 miles per hour (Category 5) as it crawls across Abacos Islands, Bahamas. Movement is west at 5 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/2/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Dorian is 25 miles northeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island or 105 miles east of West Palm Beach Florida. Earlier, the 10-15 foot storm surge destroyed virtually everything on Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands. The worst part is that the storm has been moving west at 1 mph for hours. Dorian’s maximum winds are at 145 miles per hour. Virginia Governor Ralph Northam declares a state of emergency.
UPDATE 9/3/2019 at 1500 UTC: Hurricane Dorian is located 45 miles north of Freeport Grand Bahama Island or 105 east of Fort Pierce Florida, and moving northwest at 2 miles per hour. Dorian’s maximum winds are 110 miles per hour. Dorian is still predicted to move northward along the east coast.
UPDATE 9/4/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Dorian is located 150 miles south of Charleston South Carolina (30.6N, 79.8W) with winds of 110 miles per hour and moving north-northwest at 8 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/5/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Dorian is located about 45 miles south-southeast of Myrtle Beach South Carolina with winds of 105 miles per hour and moving northeast at 10 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/6/2019 at 0900 UTC: Eye of Hurricane Dorian passed just east of Cape Lookout. Hurricane Dorian is located about 25 miles east of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, with winds of 90 miles per hour moving northeast at 14 miles per hour.
Hurricane Dorian made landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday…
Source: Reuters
UPDATE 9/6/2019 2100 UTC: Hurricane Dorian is located about 330 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts, with winds of 90 miles per hour moving northeast at 24 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/7/2019 at 2100 UTC: Dorian becomes Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian. Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is located about 50 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia, with winds of 100 miles per hour moving northeast at 30 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/8/2019 at 2100 UTC: Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is located about 65 miles west-southwest of St. Anthony, Newfoundland, with winds of 65 miles per hour moving northeast at 23 miles per hour.
While we were not looking, Tropical Storm Erin formed (8/27/2019 at 0300 UTC) and is located about 430 miles west of Bermuda with maximum winds of 40 miles per hour moving west at 2 miles per hour.
UPDATE 8/28/2019 at 1500 UTC: Erin was downgraded to a Tropical Depression located about 470 west-northwest of Bermuda with winds of 35 miles per hour moving north-northwest at 13 miles per hour.
UPDATE 8/292019 at 0900 UTC: Erin was downgraded to Post-Tropical Cyclone located about 225 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina with winds of 35 miles per hour moving north-northeast at 15 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Fernand formed Tuesday afternoon (9/3/2019 at 1800 UTC) about 160 miles east of La Pesca Mexico with winds of 40 miles per hour and moving west at 7 miles per hour. Fernand is expected to continue moving west. Fernand is not expected to strengthen much as it will likely make landfall within 24 hours.
UPDATE 9/4/2019 at 1500 UTC: Tropical Storm Fernand is located 40 miles northeast of La Pesca Mexico with winds of 45 miles per hour and moving west-northwest at 8 miles per hour. Heavy rain and gusty winds continue spreading inland over northeastern Mexico and deep south Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Altamira Mexico to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.
UPDATE 9/4/2019 at 2100 UTC: Fernand is no longer a tropical storm. The depression is breaking up as it moves into the mountains of northern Mexico.
Topical Storm Gabrielle formed 9/4/2019 at 0900 UTC over the open Atlantic Ocean, about 680 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands (19.6 N, 33.6 W) with winds of 40 miles per hour and moving north west at 10 miles per hour. Gabrielle is expected to strengthen slightly over the next 2 days.
UPDATE 9/4/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Gabrielle is 740 west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands (21.0N, 34.0W) with winds of 50 miles per hour and moving north west at 9 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/5/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Gabrielle is struggling to maintain thunderstorms near its center with winds of 45 miles per hour moving northwest at 10 miles per hour. Gabrielle is located 925 miles northwest of Cabo Verde Islands (23.4N, 35.9W).
UPDATE 9/6/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Gabrielle quickly regenerated overnight and is expected to strengthen to hurricane by early next week. Gabrielle is located about 1010 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 45 miles per hour moving northwest at 17 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/7/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Gabrielle is located about 1180 west-southwest of the Azores with winds of 50 miles per hour moving west-northwest at 18 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/8/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Gabrielle is located about 1250 miles west of the Azores with winds of 65 miles per hour moving north at 16 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/9/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Gabrielle is located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Azores with winds of 50 miles per hour with winds of 40 miles per hour moving northeast at 21 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/10/2019 at 1500 UTC: Gabrielle weakened to Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle early this morning. Gabrielle is located about 695 northwest of the Azores with winds of 50 miles per hour moving northeast at 29 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Humberto formed late last night (9/14/2019 0300 UTC) – about 130 miles east-southeast of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas, with winds of 40 miles per hour, and moving northwest at 6 miles per hour. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane in two or three days.
UPDATE 9/14/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Humberto is located about 70 miles north of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas, with winds of 50 miles per hour and moving northwest at 7 miles per hour. Humberto is still expected to strengthen into hurricane by Monday as it continues to move north then turning to northeast. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
UPDATE 9/15/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Humberto is located about 170 east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, with winds of 70 miles per hour and moving north at 6 miles per hour. Humberto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane (74 miles per hour) in the next few hours.
UPDATE 9/16/2019 at 2100 UTC: Humberto strengthened to a hurricane late last night. Hurricane Humberto is located about 670 miles west of Bermuda with winds of 90 miles per hour (Category 1) and moving east-northeast at 7 miles per hour. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
UPDATE 9/17/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Humberto is located about 450 miles west of Bermuda with winds of 105 miles per hour and moving east-northeast at 12 miles per hour. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
UPDATE 9/18/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Humberto is located about 100 miles west-northwest of Bermuda with winds of 120 miles per hour and moving east-northeast at 20 miles per hour. Hurricane-force winds expected to persist across Bermuda into early Thursday morning.
UPDATE 9/19/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Humberto is located about 550 northeast of Bermuda with winds of 105 miles per hour and moving northeast at 24 miles per hour.
About 12:45 PM today (9/17/2019 1745 UTC) Tropical Storm Imelda formed on top of Freeport, Texas, with winds of 40 miles per hour, and moving north at 7 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/17/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Imelda is located 30 miles south-southeast of Houston with winds of 40 miles per hour moving north at 7 miles per hour.
Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.
UPDATE 9/18/2019 at 0900 UTC: Imelda downgraded to a depression is located 65 miles southeast of College Station, Texas, with winds of 30 miles per hour and moving north at 5 miles per hour. Flash flood watches are in effect for southeast Texas and extreme southwest Louisiana. Accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible over the next 48 hours.
UPDATE 9/19/2019 at 0900 UTC: Tropical Depression Imelda is located about 70 miles northeast of College Station, Texas, with winds of 30 miles per hour and moving north-northwest at 5 miles per hour.
Imelda is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: Across the Upper Texas Coast into far southeast Texas…additional 5 to 10 inches with isolated storm totals of 25 to 35 inches. Across portions of southwest Louisiana…Additional 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches. Rest of east Texas…2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 8 inches. These rainfall totals may produce significant to life threatening flash floods.
Interstate 10 is closed in both directions between Winnie and Beaumont due to flooding.
Source: KHOU
UPDATE 9/19/2019 at 2100 UTC: Remnants of Imelda are moving toward the west-northwest near 3 miles per hour with winds of 15 miles per hour.
Imelda is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: Across the Upper Texas Coast into far southeast Texas…additional 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm totals of 35 to 45 inches. Across portions of southwest Louisiana…An additional 1 inch with isolated totals of 3 inches. Rest of east Texas…2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 8 inches.
Tropical Storm Jerry formed this morning (9/18/2019 at 0900 UTC) about 960 miles east of the Leeward Islands with winds of 45 miles per hour and moving west-northwest at 13 miles per hour. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. Jerry is the tenth named storm this year
UPDATE 9/19/2019 at 1500 UTC: Jerry has strengthened into a hurricane. Hurricane Jerry is located about 490 miles east of the Leeward Islands with winds of 75 miles per hour (Category 1) moving west-northwest at 16 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/19/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Jerry is located 395 east of the Leeward Islands with winds of 90 miles per hour moving west-northwest at 17 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/20/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Jerry is located about 140 miles north of Barbuda with winds of 80 miles per hour moving west-northwest at 18 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/21/2019 at 2100 UTC: Jerry weakened to Tropical Storm Jerry at 0600 UTC this morning. Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 645 miles south of Bermuda with winds of 65 miles per hour moving northwest at 14 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/22/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 405 miles south-southwest of Bermuda with winds of 65 miles per hour moving north-northwest at 9 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/23/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 340 miles southwest of Bermuda with winds of 65 miles per hour moving north-northwest at 6 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/24/2019 AT 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 260 miles west-southwest of Bermuda with winds of 50 miles per hour moving north at 6 miles per hour. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.
UPDATE 9/25/2019 at 2100 UTC: Jerry has weakened to Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry located about 45 west of Bermuda with winds of 35 miles per hour moving east-northeast at 12 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Karen formed this morning (9/22/2019 at 0900 UTC) located about 100 miles east of Grenada with winds of 40 miles per hour moving west-northwest at 9 miles per hour. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours; however, the forecast track takes Karen over Puerto Rico Tuesday or Wednesday. (Puerto Rico is still recovering from Hurricane Maria two years ago.)
UPDATE 9/22/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Karen is located about 85 miles northwest of Grenada with winds of 40 miles per hour moving west-northwest at 13 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/23/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Karen is located about 135 miles south-southwest of St. Croix with winds of 35 miles per hour moving north-northwest at 13 miles per hour. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late tonight or Tuesday morning. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
UPDATE 9/24/2019 AT 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Karen is located about 35 miles southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico with winds of 45 miles per hour moving north at 8 miles per hour. The center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
UPDATE 9/25/2019 AT 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Karen is located about 330 miles north-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico with winds of 40 miles per hour moving north-northeast at 14 miles per hour. Karen is expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.
UPDATE 9/26/2019 AT 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Karen is located about 370 miles south-southeast of Bermuda with winds of 45 miles per hour moving north-northeast at 12 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/27/2019 at 2100 UTC: Karen weakened to a surface trough located about 425 mile east-southeast of Bermuda with winds of 35 miles per hour and moving northeast at 6 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed this morning (9/23/2019 at 1500 UTC) about 255 miles south of Cabo Verde Islands with winds of 40 miles per hour moving west at 18 miles per hour. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.
UPDATE 9/23/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located about 255 miles south-southwest of Cabo Verde Islands with winds of 45 miles per hour moving west at 16 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/24/2019 AT 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located about 465 miles west-southwest of Cabo Verde Islands with winds of 65 miles per hour moving west-northwest at 17 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/25/2019 at 2100 UTC: This morning Lorenzo strengthened into the 5th Atlantic Hurricane. Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 835 miles west of Cabo Verde Islands with winds of 90 miles per hour (Category 1) moving west-northwest at 18 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/26/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 1095 miles west of Cabo Verde Islands with winds of 140 miles per hour (Category 4) moving northwest at 12 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/27/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 1575 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 125 miles per hour (Category 3) moving north-northwest at 12 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/28/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 1470 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 130 miles per hour (Category 4) moving north at 10 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/29/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 1260 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 115 miles per hour (Category 3) moving north-northeast at 15 miles per hour.
UPDATE 9/30/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 990 miles west-southwest of the Azores with winds of 105 miles per hour (Category 2) moving north-northeast at 15 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/01/2019 at 2100 UTC: Hurricane Lorenzo is located about 285 miles southwest of Flores Island, Western Azores with winds of 100 miles per hour (Category 2) moving northeast at 29 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/02/2019 at 1500 UTC: Lorenzo is now a post-tropical cyclone. Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo is located about 945 miles west-southwest of Cork Ireland with winds of 80 miles per hour moving northeast at 43 miles per hour.
Subtropical Storm Melissa formed this morning (10/11/2019 at 1500 UTC) off the coast of New England. The storm is located about 190 miles south of Nantucket Massachusetts with winds of 65 miles per hour moving south-southwest at 3 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/11/2019 at 2100 UTC: Subtropical Storm Melissa is located about 210 miles south of Nantucket Massachusetts with winds of 60 miles per hour moving south-southeast at 3 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/12/2019 at 2100 UTC: Melissa transitioned to Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm Melissa is located about 305 miles southeast of Nantucket Massachusetts with winds of 50 miles per hour moving east-northeast at 12 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/13/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Melissa is located about 405 miles southeast of Halifax Nova Scotia with winds of 40 miles per hour moving east-northeast at 18 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/14/2019 at 1500 UTC: Melissa weakened to Post-Tropical Storm. Melissa is located about 405 miles south-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland with winds of 40 miles per hour moving east at 23 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Nestor formed in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon (10/18/2019 at 2100 UTC). Nestor is located about 150 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, or 280 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida, with winds of 60 miles per hour and moving northeast at 22 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/19/2019 at 2100 UTC: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is located about 70 miles northeast of Apalachicola Florida with winds of 40 miles per hour moving northeast at 23 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Olga formed (10/25/2019 at 2100 UTC) about 260 miles south of Lake Charles Louisiana with winds of 40 miles per hour moving north-northeast at 18 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/25/2019 at 0300 UTC: Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga is located about 170 miles south-southeast of Lake Charles Louisiana with winds of 50 miles per hour moving northeast at 17 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Pablo formed (10/25/2019 at 2100 UTC) about 325 miles west-southwest of the Azores with winds of 115 miles per hour moving east-southeast at 10 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/26/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Pablo is located about 55 miles south-southwest of Santa Maria Island in the Azores with winds of 60 miles per hour moving northeast at 25 miles per hour.
Subtropical Storm Rebekah formed (10/30/2019 at 2100 UTC) about 745 miles of west of the Azores with winds of 45 miles per hour moving east at 13 miles per hour.
UPDATE 10/31/2019 at 2100 UTC: Subtropical Storm Rebekah is located 405 miles northwest of the Azores with winds of 45 miles per hour moving east at 20 miles per hour.
UPDATE 11/1/2019 at 0900 UTC: Post-Tropical Storm Rebekah becomes a remnant. Rebekah is located about 140 miles north of Faial Island in the central Azores with winds of 35 miles per hour moving east at 20 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Sebastien formed November 19 about 275 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands with winds of 45 miles per hour and moving north-northwest at 8 miles per hour. Sebastien is expected to remain over open water.
Update 11/20/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Sebastien is located about 265 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands with winds of 50 miles per hour moving north at 6 miles per hour.
Update 11/21/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Sebastien is located about 445 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands with winds of 60 miles per hour moving northeast at 9 miles per hour.
Update 11/22/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Sebastien is located about 815 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands with winds of 60 miles per hour moving east-northeast at 16 miles per hour.
Update 11/23/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Sebastien is located about 1105 miles west-southwest of the Azores with winds of 65 miles per hour moving northeast at 28 miles per hour.
Update 11/24/2019 at 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Sebastien is located about 310 miles west-northwest of the Azores with winds of 65 miles per hour moving east-northeast at 39 miles per hour.
Update 11/25/2019 at 0300 UTC: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien is no longer a Tropical Storm. Last location about 230 miles north-northwest of the Azores with winds of 60 miles per hour moving northeast at 40 miles per hour.
This year the story so far is wildfires in western states and high temperatures in northern states. There’s several large wildfires burning in Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and Colorado. Over the July 4th holiday (it fell on Wednesday) temperatures topped 100° F as far north as Minnesota.
It’s now the second week of July, and we’ve only had one subtropical storm, Alberto. Another storm, Hurricane Beryl, is located about 720 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was a category 1 hurricane, but it was downgraded this morning to a tropical storm. Last year we had 4 tropical storms by July 4th; first hurricane, Franklin, formed August 9 and hit Mexico the next day.
On Monday another storm formed, Tropical Storm Chris (it’s that circle east of the Carolina’s). It’s expected to make hurricane 1 strength by Tuesday but it is not expected to last long or make problems for people.
I’m sure there’s more storms coming, but for now it’s all quiet – and hot.
UPDATE 07-10-2018:
As expected, TS Chris became Hurricane Chris on Tuesday, July 10, but it is expected to head into the Atlantic and not make landfall. There is a high pressure area on the east coast that is keeping it offshore.
TS Beryl continued to to slowdown and weaken until today it’s no longer a tropical storm; maximum winds 35 mph.
UPDATE 07-11-2018:
Hurricane Chris strengthened to category 2 overnight. It’s continuing on a northeasterly track, and it’s not a direct threat to land.
UPDATE 08-07-2018:
Today, Tropical Storm Debby formed out in the middle of the Atlantic. It’s not expected to make landfall.
UPDATE 08-08-2018:
Hurricane Hector is threatening the Big Island of Hawaii with Tropical Storm force winds. Near the eye, maximum sustained wind speed is 125 mph.
UPDATE 08-09-2018:
Today, the Nation Hurricane Center said that Hurricane Hector is no longer a threat to Hawaii. Also, TS Debby is dissipating to a depression. And just as I thought, CNN reported today that NOAA predicts a “below normal” hurricane season thanks to El Niño.
UPDATE 08-18-2018:
Two days ago, TS Ernesto formed in the middle of the Atlantic. Today the storm is nearing Ireland.
Hurricane Lane, another Pacific hurricane, continues to strengthen and may come close to Hawaii like Hector did.
UPDATE 08-22-2018:
Reports from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center say Hurricane Lane is a strong category 4 (wind speeds of 145 MPH) and could pass dangerously close to the Hawaiian Islands. It appears to be strong and slow moving – the worst combination for populated areas.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Oahu
* Maui County…including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County
UPDATE 08-25-2018:
After dumping up to 40 inches of rain on parts of Hawaii, Hurricane Lane was downgraded to a tropical storm today.
UPDATE 09-03-2019:
Today, Tropical Storm Gordon formed off of the southwest coast of Florida – about 10 miles west of Key Largo. Gordon is predicted to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall along the Mississippi coast Wednesday (9/5).
UPDATE 09-05-2018:
National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates that Gordon made landfall around 1015 PM CDT (0315 UTC) just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border with estimated maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).
Meanwhile, yesterday about 4:00 AM CDT, Tropical Storm Florence strengthened to a Hurricane Florence in the middle of the Atlantic.
UPDATE 09-09-2018:
Two new storms formed after Gordon blew through and after Florence started cranking it up – Tropical Storm Helene and Tropical Storm Isaac formed off the coast of Africa. Helene is expected to turn north into the Atlantic, but Isaac is headed toward the Lesser Antilles.
Since Wednesday, Florence weakened and then strengthened back into a hurricane. It is now predicted to make landfall on the coast of North Carolina as a category 3 storm.
UPDATE 09-12-2018:
A new potential storm, Invest 95-L, has developed off of the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC gives the system a 60% chance to develop into a tropical depression between now and Friday (9/14) evening.
Near Hawaii, Tropical Storm Olivia weakened from a hurricane and is expected to make landfall on Maui on Wednesday (9/12).
Hurricane Florence is now category 4 and is expected to make landfall on Friday (9/14) along the Carolina’s.
According to the NHC, Hurricane Isaac will lose some steam and be a tropical storm as it moves into the Caribbean Sea by the weekend (9/15).
Hurricane Helene is still in the open Atlantic and may move toward England or France.
UPDATE 09-14-2018:
Hurricane Florence made landfall this morning near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.
Helene weakened to a Tropical Storm yesterday. Isaac is a depression south of Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Joyce formed in the Atlantic near Helene – there’s no threat to land. Invest 95-L weakened and may be a rain maker for the Texas coast this weekend.
UPDATE 10-01-2018:
Hurricane Sergio formed in the southeastern Pacific this evening. It is not expected to make landfall.
UPDATE 10-03-2018:
Hurricane Leslie formed in the middle of the Atlantic this morning. It is not expected to make landfall.
UPDATE 10-08-2018:
Hurricane Michael formed off of the western tip of Cuba today. It is expected to move north and make landfall near Panama City, Florida, sometime on Wednesday (10/10).
UPDATE 10-10-2018:
Hurricane Michael strengthened to a category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 m.p.h (157 is category 5) before it slammed into the Florida Panhandle near Panama City Beach.
UPDATE 10-14-2018:
Remember Hurricane Leslie? She made landfall about 125 miles north of Lisbon, Portugal, today as a post-tropical cyclone with wind speeds of 105 mph. The NHC actually started tracking Leslie as a subtropical storm on September 23! That’s 21 days ago! This storm is one for the books: according to Wikipedia, it’s the 10th greatest duration tropical cyclone (I’ve only lived through 2 others on that list.)
[10-05-2017] Tropical Storm Nate is located in the Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Nicaragua, and it’s expected to spin north toward New Orleans – possibly reaching hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana next week.
Here is the latest advisory from the National Weather Service:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night.
2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is in effect for a portion of this area.
3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system and heed any advice given by local officials.
[UPDATE 10-08-2017] Hurricane Nate made 2 landfalls in less than 12 hours. So Nate moved quickly and strengthened quickly. It’s Sunday morning and Hurricane Nate is now moving north inland and weakening.
The Category 1 storm first made landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River at 8 p.m. Saturday evening with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Then at 1:30 a.m., Nate made a second landfall near Biloxi, Miss. at the same intensity. Source Washington Post.
That has to be one of the fastest storms to move through the Gulf of Mexico. In almost 3 days it moved 1300 miles.
On the move! Nate’s 28 mph forward motion, in the last 12 hours, is the fastest recorded forward motion of a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico
In the past 24 hours, Maria became a hurricane, and strengthened to Category 4. (See Saffir-Simpson scale.) It’s currently next to Dominica, and tracking north west. Maria is predicted to follow a similar path as Hurricane Irma – passing over Puerto Rico – and turning north, staying in the Atlantic.
Also in the Atlantic, Hurricane Jose continues to weaken as it tracks north; still affecting tides along the east coast of the U.S. and Bermuda.
Here are the Forecast/Advisories from the National Weather Service:
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.7W AT 18/2100Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
[UPDATE 09-20-2017] Hurricane Jose was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and Hurricane Maria strengthened to Category 5 before it slammed into Puerto Rico.
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
[UPDATE 09-22-2017] Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico yesterday. It weakened to Category 2 as it past over the island, but then strengthened again to Category 3 last night. It’s currently about 30 miles east of Turks and Caicos Islands, and is expected to move north along the east coast of the U.S.
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.6W AT 22/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
[UPDATE 09-28-2017] Almost one week after my last report on Hurricane Maria, the storm weakened to Tropical Storm strength, then restrengthened to a Hurricane, and now is weakened to Tropical Storm once again. Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee (it was a storm before Maria), has strengthened to a Category 2 storm. Lee is expected to track northeast and not affect the U.S..
MARIA:
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.0W AT 28/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
LEE:
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.2W AT 28/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
The tenacious Hurricane Jose is back after a break from the triumvirate of tumultuous storms, Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Katia. Jose has been spinning in circles in the western Atlantic since I last reported on him September 12. On September 14, he weakened to Tropical Storm Jose. On September 15, he strengthened to a hurricane once again. Jose is not forecast to severally affect the U.S.
Here is the discussion from the National Weather Service:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.
2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
While people from Corpus Christi to Houston are still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, two more storms showed up in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Irma formed in the mid-Atlantic and strengthened to Category 5 by September 5, 2017; max winds 160 KT (185 mph). Now, it’s on the doorstep of the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Jose formed yesterday in the mid-Atlantic.
Here are the advisories from the National Hurricane Center
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 59.8W AT 05/2100Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
[UPDATE 09-06-2017] Tropical Storm Katia formed overnight in the Gulf of Mexico about 105 miles east of Tampico, Mexico. It is not expected to impact the U.S.
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.6W AT 06/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
[UPDATE 09-07-2017] Tropical Storm Jose strengthened to Hurricane Jose overnight, and Tropical Storm Katia strengthened to Hurricane Katia overnight. Hurricane Jose is following a similar path to Hurricane Irma, but it’s expected to turn north sooner than Irma and not affect Florida. Florida is preparing for a strong Hurricane Irma; possibly Category 4. Hurricane Katia is still not expected to impact the U.S.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 69.7W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 50.6W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
KATIA
HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
[UPDATE 09-08-2017] In the past 12 hours, Hurricane Irma weakened to Category 4, Hurricane Jose strengthened to Category 4, and Hurricane Katia strengthened to Category 2. Hurricane Irma is located between Cuba and the Bahamas, and is expected to make landfall in south Florida on Sunday morning. Hurricane Jose is on a path to skim the northern Leeward Islands and continue a northerly course towards Bermuda. Hurricane Katia is expected to make landfall north of Veracruz, Mexico, late Friday night.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 75.3W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 57.1W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
KATIA
HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
[UPDATE 09-09-2017] Last night Hurricane Katia made landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico and quickly fell apart. Hurricane Irma, weakened to a Category 3 (but expected to restrengthen), slowly continued its northwest track toward south Florida. Irma is located just off of the north coast of Cuba. Hurricane Jose, still a Category 4, slowly continued its northwest track. Jose is located about 50 miles northeast of Barbuda Island.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 79.8W AT 09/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.3W AT 09/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
[UPDATE 09-10-2017] Overnight Hurricane Irma, Category 4, turned north and made first landfall on the lower Florida Keys. It is continuing on a northerly course. Hurricane Jose, still a Category 4, slowly continued its northwest track. It is located 180 miles north of Puerto Rico.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 81.5W AT 10/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.5W AT 10/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
[UPDATE 09-11-2017] The past 24 hours Hurricane Irma moved 400 miles north and was down graded to a Tropical Storm. TS Irma is located 30 miles west of Gainesville, Florida. Hurricane Jose was down graded to Category 2. Jose is located about 550 miles east of Nassau, Bahamas.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 68.6W AT 11/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
[UPDATE 09-12-2017] In the past 24 hours Hurricane Irma moved north to the Alabama-Georgia line and weakened to a post-cyclone. Hurricane Jose weakened to Category 1. It’s located 400 miles southwest from Bermuda.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 69.0W AT 12/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.