A major heatwave in Greenland could melt 440 billion tons of glacial ice this year. They lost 11 billion tons in 1 day – August 1.
NASA oceanographer Josh Willis points the finger at both man-made climate change, and natural “but weird” weather patterns, and he believes that by the year 2100, ice from just Greenland could cause 3 or 4 more feet of sea level rise.
Source: People.com
Philip Klotzbach, hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, tweeted that this year’s forecast calls for a slightly below average season with at least 13 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The reason for the weaker season is the continuation of a weak El Niño.
So, here’s to 2019. The season begins June 1.
This year the story so far is wildfires in western states and high temperatures in northern states. There’s several large wildfires burning in Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and Colorado. Over the July 4th holiday (it fell on Wednesday) temperatures topped 100° F as far north as Minnesota.
It’s now the second week of July, and we’ve only had one subtropical storm, Alberto. Another storm, Hurricane Beryl, is located about 720 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was a category 1 hurricane, but it was downgraded this morning to a tropical storm. Last year we had 4 tropical storms by July 4th; first hurricane, Franklin, formed August 9 and hit Mexico the next day.
On Monday another storm formed, Tropical Storm Chris (it’s that circle east of the Carolina’s). It’s expected to make hurricane 1 strength by Tuesday but it is not expected to last long or make problems for people.
I’m sure there’s more storms coming, but for now it’s all quiet – and hot.
UPDATE 07-10-2018:
As expected, TS Chris became Hurricane Chris on Tuesday, July 10, but it is expected to head into the Atlantic and not make landfall. There is a high pressure area on the east coast that is keeping it offshore.
TS Beryl continued to to slowdown and weaken until today it’s no longer a tropical storm; maximum winds 35 mph.
UPDATE 07-11-2018:
Hurricane Chris strengthened to category 2 overnight. It’s continuing on a northeasterly track, and it’s not a direct threat to land.
UPDATE 08-07-2018:
Today, Tropical Storm Debby formed out in the middle of the Atlantic. It’s not expected to make landfall.
UPDATE 08-08-2018:
Hurricane Hector is threatening the Big Island of Hawaii with Tropical Storm force winds. Near the eye, maximum sustained wind speed is 125 mph.
UPDATE 08-09-2018:
Today, the Nation Hurricane Center said that Hurricane Hector is no longer a threat to Hawaii. Also, TS Debby is dissipating to a depression. And just as I thought, CNN reported today that NOAA predicts a “below normal” hurricane season thanks to El Niño.
UPDATE 08-18-2018:
Two days ago, TS Ernesto formed in the middle of the Atlantic. Today the storm is nearing Ireland.
Hurricane Lane, another Pacific hurricane, continues to strengthen and may come close to Hawaii like Hector did.
UPDATE 08-22-2018:
Reports from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center say Hurricane Lane is a strong category 4 (wind speeds of 145 MPH) and could pass dangerously close to the Hawaiian Islands. It appears to be strong and slow moving – the worst combination for populated areas.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Oahu
* Maui County…including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County
UPDATE 08-25-2018:
After dumping up to 40 inches of rain on parts of Hawaii, Hurricane Lane was downgraded to a tropical storm today.
UPDATE 09-03-2019:
Today, Tropical Storm Gordon formed off of the southwest coast of Florida – about 10 miles west of Key Largo. Gordon is predicted to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall along the Mississippi coast Wednesday (9/5).
UPDATE 09-05-2018:
National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates that Gordon made landfall around 1015 PM CDT (0315 UTC) just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border with estimated maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).
Meanwhile, yesterday about 4:00 AM CDT, Tropical Storm Florence strengthened to a Hurricane Florence in the middle of the Atlantic.
UPDATE 09-09-2018:
Two new storms formed after Gordon blew through and after Florence started cranking it up – Tropical Storm Helene and Tropical Storm Isaac formed off the coast of Africa. Helene is expected to turn north into the Atlantic, but Isaac is headed toward the Lesser Antilles.
Since Wednesday, Florence weakened and then strengthened back into a hurricane. It is now predicted to make landfall on the coast of North Carolina as a category 3 storm.
UPDATE 09-12-2018:
A new potential storm, Invest 95-L, has developed off of the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC gives the system a 60% chance to develop into a tropical depression between now and Friday (9/14) evening.
Near Hawaii, Tropical Storm Olivia weakened from a hurricane and is expected to make landfall on Maui on Wednesday (9/12).
Hurricane Florence is now category 4 and is expected to make landfall on Friday (9/14) along the Carolina’s.
According to the NHC, Hurricane Isaac will lose some steam and be a tropical storm as it moves into the Caribbean Sea by the weekend (9/15).
Hurricane Helene is still in the open Atlantic and may move toward England or France.
UPDATE 09-14-2018:
Hurricane Florence made landfall this morning near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.
Helene weakened to a Tropical Storm yesterday. Isaac is a depression south of Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Joyce formed in the Atlantic near Helene – there’s no threat to land. Invest 95-L weakened and may be a rain maker for the Texas coast this weekend.
UPDATE 10-01-2018:
Hurricane Sergio formed in the southeastern Pacific this evening. It is not expected to make landfall.
UPDATE 10-03-2018:
Hurricane Leslie formed in the middle of the Atlantic this morning. It is not expected to make landfall.
UPDATE 10-08-2018:
Hurricane Michael formed off of the western tip of Cuba today. It is expected to move north and make landfall near Panama City, Florida, sometime on Wednesday (10/10).
UPDATE 10-10-2018:
Hurricane Michael strengthened to a category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 m.p.h (157 is category 5) before it slammed into the Florida Panhandle near Panama City Beach.
UPDATE 10-14-2018:
Remember Hurricane Leslie? She made landfall about 125 miles north of Lisbon, Portugal, today as a post-tropical cyclone with wind speeds of 105 mph. The NHC actually started tracking Leslie as a subtropical storm on September 23! That’s 21 days ago! This storm is one for the books: according to Wikipedia, it’s the 10th greatest duration tropical cyclone (I’ve only lived through 2 others on that list.)
[10-05-2017] Tropical Storm Nate is located in the Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Nicaragua, and it’s expected to spin north toward New Orleans – possibly reaching hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana next week.
Here is the latest advisory from the National Weather Service:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night.
2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is in effect for a portion of this area.
3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system and heed any advice given by local officials.
[UPDATE 10-08-2017] Hurricane Nate made 2 landfalls in less than 12 hours. So Nate moved quickly and strengthened quickly. It’s Sunday morning and Hurricane Nate is now moving north inland and weakening.
The Category 1 storm first made landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River at 8 p.m. Saturday evening with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Then at 1:30 a.m., Nate made a second landfall near Biloxi, Miss. at the same intensity. Source Washington Post.
That has to be one of the fastest storms to move through the Gulf of Mexico. In almost 3 days it moved 1300 miles.
On the move! Nate’s 28 mph forward motion, in the last 12 hours, is the fastest recorded forward motion of a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico
In the past 24 hours, Maria became a hurricane, and strengthened to Category 4. (See Saffir-Simpson scale.) It’s currently next to Dominica, and tracking north west. Maria is predicted to follow a similar path as Hurricane Irma – passing over Puerto Rico – and turning north, staying in the Atlantic.
Also in the Atlantic, Hurricane Jose continues to weaken as it tracks north; still affecting tides along the east coast of the U.S. and Bermuda.
Here are the Forecast/Advisories from the National Weather Service:
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.7W AT 18/2100Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
[UPDATE 09-20-2017] Hurricane Jose was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and Hurricane Maria strengthened to Category 5 before it slammed into Puerto Rico.
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
[UPDATE 09-22-2017] Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico yesterday. It weakened to Category 2 as it past over the island, but then strengthened again to Category 3 last night. It’s currently about 30 miles east of Turks and Caicos Islands, and is expected to move north along the east coast of the U.S.
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.6W AT 22/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
[UPDATE 09-28-2017] Almost one week after my last report on Hurricane Maria, the storm weakened to Tropical Storm strength, then restrengthened to a Hurricane, and now is weakened to Tropical Storm once again. Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee (it was a storm before Maria), has strengthened to a Category 2 storm. Lee is expected to track northeast and not affect the U.S..
MARIA:
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.0W AT 28/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
LEE:
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.2W AT 28/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
The tenacious Hurricane Jose is back after a break from the triumvirate of tumultuous storms, Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Katia. Jose has been spinning in circles in the western Atlantic since I last reported on him September 12. On September 14, he weakened to Tropical Storm Jose. On September 15, he strengthened to a hurricane once again. Jose is not forecast to severally affect the U.S.
Here is the discussion from the National Weather Service:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.
2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
While people from Corpus Christi to Houston are still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, two more storms showed up in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Irma formed in the mid-Atlantic and strengthened to Category 5 by September 5, 2017; max winds 160 KT (185 mph). Now, it’s on the doorstep of the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Jose formed yesterday in the mid-Atlantic.
Here are the advisories from the National Hurricane Center
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 59.8W AT 05/2100Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
[UPDATE 09-06-2017] Tropical Storm Katia formed overnight in the Gulf of Mexico about 105 miles east of Tampico, Mexico. It is not expected to impact the U.S.
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.6W AT 06/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
[UPDATE 09-07-2017] Tropical Storm Jose strengthened to Hurricane Jose overnight, and Tropical Storm Katia strengthened to Hurricane Katia overnight. Hurricane Jose is following a similar path to Hurricane Irma, but it’s expected to turn north sooner than Irma and not affect Florida. Florida is preparing for a strong Hurricane Irma; possibly Category 4. Hurricane Katia is still not expected to impact the U.S.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 69.7W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 50.6W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
KATIA
HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 07/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
[UPDATE 09-08-2017] In the past 12 hours, Hurricane Irma weakened to Category 4, Hurricane Jose strengthened to Category 4, and Hurricane Katia strengthened to Category 2. Hurricane Irma is located between Cuba and the Bahamas, and is expected to make landfall in south Florida on Sunday morning. Hurricane Jose is on a path to skim the northern Leeward Islands and continue a northerly course towards Bermuda. Hurricane Katia is expected to make landfall north of Veracruz, Mexico, late Friday night.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 75.3W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 57.1W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
KATIA
HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W AT 08/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
[UPDATE 09-09-2017] Last night Hurricane Katia made landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico and quickly fell apart. Hurricane Irma, weakened to a Category 3 (but expected to restrengthen), slowly continued its northwest track toward south Florida. Irma is located just off of the north coast of Cuba. Hurricane Jose, still a Category 4, slowly continued its northwest track. Jose is located about 50 miles northeast of Barbuda Island.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 79.8W AT 09/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.3W AT 09/1500Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
[UPDATE 09-10-2017] Overnight Hurricane Irma, Category 4, turned north and made first landfall on the lower Florida Keys. It is continuing on a northerly course. Hurricane Jose, still a Category 4, slowly continued its northwest track. It is located 180 miles north of Puerto Rico.
IRMA
HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 81.5W AT 10/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.5W AT 10/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
[UPDATE 09-11-2017] The past 24 hours Hurricane Irma moved 400 miles north and was down graded to a Tropical Storm. TS Irma is located 30 miles west of Gainesville, Florida. Hurricane Jose was down graded to Category 2. Jose is located about 550 miles east of Nassau, Bahamas.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 68.6W AT 11/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
[UPDATE 09-12-2017] In the past 24 hours Hurricane Irma moved north to the Alabama-Georgia line and weakened to a post-cyclone. Hurricane Jose weakened to Category 1. It’s located 400 miles southwest from Bermuda.
JOSE
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 69.0W AT 12/0900Z
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
It has been a quiet 8 years since Hurricane Ike came to Texas, but now we’re looking at a hurricane that could dump FEET of rain on southeast Texas. Meet Hurricane Harvey, a Category 1 storm with winds of 80 mph (as of Thursday afternoon). He’s expected to get stronger – possibly Cat 3 – and make landfall near Corpus Christi sometime Friday evening. I’ll update as I can.
Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Special Advisory Number 17 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 118 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017:
Harvey has intensified into a hurricane early this afternoon. Harvey is expected to continue to strengthen possibly becoming a major hurricane on Friday before landfall. At this point, Harvey could become a high end category 3 hurricane. The primary impact from Harvey remains heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding for southeast Texas. There is also the threat for tropical storm to hurricane force winds and storm surge along the coast. The most likely arrival time for tropical storm force winds to reach the upper Texas coast is during the day on Friday. Since the wind fields have expanded in Harvey, higher storm surge can be expected up the Texas coast. Source: www.weather.gov
[UPDATE Friday 08-25-2017]
Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 20A National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 725 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017:
Harvey has continued to strengthen this morning to a high-end category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Harvey is forecast to continue strengthening and will most likely become a major hurricane today before it makes landfall along the Middle Texas Coast later tonight. The primary impact from Harvey over Southeast Texas remains prolonged significant heavy rainfall that will induce extreme widespread flooding through at least the beginning of next week. Tropical storm force winds, with occasional hurricane force wind gusts, and storm surge will occur along the coast as early as this afternoon and persist through Tuesday. Coastal flooding due to storm surge and wave run up will remain an issue throughout the weekend and into the beginning of next week as strong onshore winds will continue to pile water up along the coastline. Again, the primary emphasis and greatest threat to life and property will be the extreme rainfall amounts that will likely lead to a potentially catastrophic and prolonged flash flooding event. Source: www.weather.gov
[UPDATE Saturday 08-26-2017]
Harvey came ashore late last night as a Cat 4 – wind speeds of 130 mph – near Port Aransas, Texas. We’re doing well – only about 2.5 inches of rain so far.
Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 24A National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 713 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017:
Hurricane Harvey has weakened to a Category 1 and is producing torrential rainfall and isolated tornadoes across Southeast Texas as it slowly drifts to the NNW. The primary impact from Harvey over Southeast Texas remains prolonged significant heavy rainfall that will induce extreme widespread flooding through at least the beginning of next week. Flash flooding has already begun across portions of Southeast Texas. Tropical storm force winds are possible through around noon Saturday for the southwestern portions of Southeast Texas. With the strongest winds tonight, storm surge will be slow to recede through Sunday, particularly west of Sargent. Elevated tide levels will continue through Tuesday. Tornadoes will continue to form this morning, especially across the coastal counties and first inland tier. Again, the primary emphasis and greatest threat to life and property will be the extreme rainfall amounts that will likely lead to a potentially catastrophic and prolonged flash flooding event over the coming 3 to 5 days. Source: www.weather.gov
[UPDATE Sunday 08-27-2017]
Flooding rain is predicted for at least the next 4 days.
Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 28 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 432 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017:
A catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding event is unfolding across Southeast Texas this morning. Five Flash Flood Emergencies have already been issued for the Houston Metro area overnight, some of which remain in effect this morning. Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to drop devastating amounts of ADDITIONAL rainfall across the area over the next several days. Tornadoes have also been occurring across Southeast Texas over the last day or so and will continue through the next several days. Coastal flooding may be an ongoing issue along the coast where winds will continue to push water onshore, particularly south of Sargent. Elevated tides will cause the recession of coastal flood waters to be slow, likely lasting into the first part of the week. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still ongoing, primarily in the southwestern portions of the area towards Matagorda Bay. Though there are currently multiple hazards present across the area, the greatest threat to life and property remains the ongoing extreme rainfall and subsequent prolonged and catastrophic flash flooding. Source: www.weather.gov
[UPDATE Monday 08-28-2017]
It’s quiet this morning. Rain is in the area and some is coming to BCS, but for the most part we’re calm. Now we wait and see how bad the flooding is/will be – there’s a Flash Flood Watch until Wednesday night.
Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 32 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 428 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017
The life-threatening flooding event around the Houston metro continues through tonight, as water rescues are still occurring in the area. Though comparatively less rainfall has fallen across the area tonight than last night, this speaks more to the unfathomable amount of rainfall last night. Per observations, a widespread 3 to 7 inches of rain has still fallen in the past six hours across much of the area, with more to the east of the Houston metro around I-10. Given the completely saturated ground, this amount of rainfall and future expected heavy rainfall will keep the flooding threat at the forefront of this storm. Tornadoes have also been occurring, and while their rate has slowed overnight, this threat will continue as well. Coastal flooding may be an ongoing issue along the coast where winds will continue to push water onshore, particularly south of Sargent. Elevated tides will cause the recession of coastal flood waters to be slow, likely lasting into the first part of the week. As Harvey drifts back towards the Gulf, the potential for tropical storm force winds will also extend up the coastline. Ultimately, of the multiple hazards present with this storm, the greatest threat to life and property remains the ongoing extreme rainfall and its consequent prolonged and catastrophic flash flooding event. Source: www.weather.gov
[UPDATE Tuesday 08-29-2017]
Harvey continues as a tropical storm, moving slowly back to the Gulf, throwing tornadoes and flooding rains to New Orleans and beyond.
Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 36 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017 446 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017:
The catastrophic and life-threatening flooding event around the Houston metro continues this morning with water rescues and evacuations still ongoing across the area. A light to moderate rain continues to fall this morning, with the heavier rates now confined to Chambers County. Given the completely saturated ground, any amount current of rainfall and future expected rainfall will exacerbate conditions and hinder the recession of flood waters. Elevated tides will cause the recession of coastal flood waters to be slow, likely lasting into midweek. Historic flooding is likely on many area rivers and bayous, and many evacuations are already underway. The effect of this historic river and bayou flooding will remain ongoing long after the rains end. As Harvey drifts just off the Upper Texas Coast, the potential for tropical storm force winds will also extend up the coastline. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out today, however the threat for tornadoes has decreased substantially since yesterday. Ultimately, of the multiple hazards present with this storm, the greatest threat to life and property remains the ongoing prolonged and catastrophic flooding event. Source: www.weather.gov
[UPDATE Wednesday 08-30-2017]
Texas is done with Tropical Storm Harvey. Today it’s slowly moving toward Louisiana. The forecast still has it going north in the next few days – the forecasts so far have been wrong.
Greater Houston is devastated. More than 5,000 square miles are under water; one spot east of Houston received 51 inches of rain in 5 days; over 40,000 homes have been damaged.
Many buildings in Corpus Christi, Port Aransas, Victoria, and Rockport – were Hurricane Harvey made landfall – were damaged.
She’s not a hurricane yet, but TS Hermine might become one before making landfall tonight. Florida’s west coast is expected to get 15+ inches of rain. Then the storm will move up the east coast over Labor Day weekend. Source: weather.com
I haven’t written much about hurricanes on here because there hasn’t been much activity near me. There’s currently a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to make landfall over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula tomorrow.
The center of Earl was located about 150 miles east of Belize City, Belize, as Wednesday evening, with maximum sustained winds around 75 mph. Earl’s forward speed had slowed over the past 24-48 hours, moving west at 14 mph. Source: weather.com
Earl isn’t expected to affect the US.
Perhaps the best reason we haven’t had any storms is because of high pressure “bubbles” sitting over Texas and surrounding states. It’s believed that El Nino is the cause: shifting the jet stream far north and allowing high pressure fronts to stay put over the southwest US.